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2020年全球能源地缘政治动荡复杂、充满挑战
发表日期: 2019-05-08 浏览次数: 字体:
 

  2019NIAN,QUANQIUZHENGZHILUANXIANGCONGSHENG、TIAOZHANBUDUAN。DUOBIANZHUYIHEDANBIANZHUYIZHIZHENGGENGJIAJIANRUI,BAOHUZHUYIHEMINCUIZHUYINILIUYONGDONG,QIANGQUANZHENGZHIHEBALINGXINGJINGSICHUHENGXING。ZAIZHEIYANGDEBEIJINGXIA,DAGUOBOYIMINGXIANSHENGWEN,QUANQIUZHILIBULVWEIJIAN,SHIJIEJINGJICHIXUDIMI。CONGZHONGDONG、OUZHOUDAOLAMEI,YIXILIEREDIANCIQIBIFU,CHUANTONGYUFEICHUANTONGANQUANWEIXIEJIAOZHIMANYAN,GUOJIZHILIMIANLINYANJUNTIAOZHAN。

  YUCITONGSHI,2019NIAN,SHIJIEJINGJIZAISHIZILUKOUYINGFENGQIANXING。GUOJIHUOBIJIJINZUZHI(IMF)PANDUAN,QUANQIUJINGJIXIANRUTONGBUFANGHUANJINGDI,YUJIQUANNIANSHIJIEJINGJIZENGSUZHIYOU3%ZUOYOU,CHUANG2008NIANGUOJIJINRONGWEIJIYILAIDEZUIDISHUIPING。“BUQUEDINGXING”SHIYINGXIANG2019NIANSHIJIEJINGJIDEGUANJIANCI。ERZAOCHENGBUQUEDINGXINGSHANGSHENGDEZHUYIN,SHIBAOHUZHUYISHENGWENDAOZHIDEMAOYIMOCAJIAJU。CIWAI,JISHUCHUANGXINBUZU、RENKOULAOLINGHUAJIAJU、GAIGEJINZHANHUANMANDENGYUANYIN,YEGOUCHENGDANGQIANCHEZHOUSHIJIEJINGJIZENGZHANGDEZHUDUOTIAOZHAN。

  ZAISHANGSHUSHIJIEZHENGZHIJINGJIGEJUDEDABEIJINGXIA,2019NIANDEQUANQIUNENGYUANDIYUANZHENGZHIGEJUYOUSHIZENYANGDE?2020NIANJIANGZHANXIANCHUYIFUZENYANGDEQINGJING?ZONGHEQUANQIUGEQUYUMAODUNHECHONGTUDELIEDU、YOUQIFUJIQUDONGDANGCHENGDU,BENWENFENBIEJIUZHONGDONG、ZHONGYAELUOSI、LAMEI、BEIMEI、FEIZHOU、YATAIHEOUZHOUDIQU2019NIANHUIGUHE2020NIANZHANWANGZUOYIGUINAHEFENXI。

  中东: 动荡危机仍将继续

  2019NIANZHONGDONGDIQUDEJUSHIKEWEI“CONGNIANCHUREDAONIANWEI”。YIFANGMIAN,MEIGUOYILANGDUIZHISHENGJI。2019NIAN5YUEMEIGUOQUANMIANXIANZHIYILANGSHIYOUCHUKOU,YILANGXUNSUCAIQUFANZHICUOSHI。CONG5YUEKAISHI,BOSIWANYIDAILIANXUFASHENGWEIJI。BOSIWANYOULUNSHUCIYUXI,YILANGJILUOMEIWURENJI,SHATESHIYOUSHESHIYUXIDENGDENG。MEIGUOJIANGJIXIANSHIYAZHENGCETUIDAOJIZHI,YILANGZEFANGQILE2019NIAN5YUEZHIQIANZAIDUIMEIGUANXI、HEXIEYIDENGWENTISHANGDEYINREN。CONGBOSIWANHANGYUNANQUAN、YILANGSHIYOUCHUKOUZHOUJIANGDAOZHIYILANGJINGJISHEHUIWEIJI、MEIYICAQIANGZOUHUODEXIANQINGDENGJIAODUKAN,MEIYIJINZHANGDOUKANCHENGSHIDUONIANLAIDEXINGAO。DANGRAN,ZHEIZHONGJINZHANGLIDAGUIMOCHONGTUHEZHANZHENGHAIBIJIAOYUAN,SHUANGFANGHAISHIZAI“DOUFA”,BINGBUXIANG“ROUBO”。ZI5YUEYILAI,ZAIMEIGUODUIYILANGSHISHI“ERJIZHICAI”DEQINGKUANGXIA,KUAGUOGONGSIHEWAIGUOTOUZIZHEBUDEBUZHONGZHIYUYILANGDETOUZI、MAOYIHEGONGCHENGCHENGBAOWANGLAI,QIZHONGBAOKUOYOUQITOUZIYUMAOYI。

  LINGYIFANGMIAN,ZHONGDONGDIQUQUANLIGEJUJINYIBUSHIHENG。ALABOZHICHUNYILAI,ZHONGDONGJIUCHENGXIANALABOGUOJIARUOHUA、YILANGTUERQIYISELIEQIANGSHIDETEZHENG,ZHEIZAI2019NIANJINYIBUJIAJU。TUCHUBIAOXIANZAITUERQIZAIXUBEIFADONGJUNSHIXINGDONGKUOJIANHUANCHONGQU,YILANGXIJISHATESHIYOUSHESHI,MEIGUOCHENGRENGELANGAODISHUYUYISELIE,DENGDENG。MEIGUODUISHATE、BALESITANDENGZHICHIYOUXIAN,ZERANGTUERQI、YILANG、YISELIEGENGJIADADAN。LINGWAI,JINRU10YUE,LINGYICHANYOUDAGUOYILAKECHUXIANKANGYILANGCHAO,JIEZHIMUQIANRENGWEIXIAOTING,DAOZHISHUBAIRENSIWANG、YIZHENGFUZONGLIMAIHEDICIZHI。QINGNIANSHIYE、GONGGONGkgCAIPIAOZHUCEQUESHI、FUBAIDENGWENTISHICICIKANGYIDEZHUYIN。LINGRENXINWEIDESHI,ZAILIJINGSANNIANDUODEBOZHEHOU,QUANQIUZUIDADESHIYOUGONGSI——SHATEAMEIGONGSIZUIZHONGCHENGGONGSHISHIIPO,CHUANGZAOLEQUANQIUZUIDAMUZIGUIMOHEQUANQIUZUIGAOSHIZHIGONGSILIANGXIANGSHIJIEJILU。

  展望2020年,动荡、危机还会持续。在美伊关系上,伊朗已被逼到墙角,经济上可持续性比较差,按常理推断要么以更大力度反制美国,要么谋求与美国谈判。因此,形势有突变的可能。在阿拉伯世界,老问题解决不了,危机会持续。更重要的是,各国抗议者要求打破整个旧体制,换个领导人不再能解决问题。因此,目前在伊拉克、黎巴嫩的抗议不会平息,不排除形势出现反复甚至恶化的可能。在这个过程中,抗议的暴力色彩可能加重,或与教派冲突、美伊博弈勾连起来,形成更大的安全危机。权力格局的失衡也在向更坏的方向发展。中东地区过去存在的制衡是指美国扶持阿拉伯世界,对抗伊朗,同时与以色列、土耳其形成平衡。但是这几年美国很明显不想增加对中东的投入,不愿为阿拉伯国家打仗花钱,因此美国支持减少之下的阿拉伯世界更难以对抗土耳其以色列伊朗。土耳其在叙利亚,伊朗在波斯湾,以色列在巴以问题上,只会得寸进尺。作为阿拉伯世界仅剩的大国,沙特2020年将主办单位:kg彩票注册_kg彩票开奖官方网站-点击进入>!

  中亚俄罗斯: 风险进一步加大

  2019NIAN,ZHONGYAXINGSHIWENZHONGYOUBIAN。HASAKESITANLINGDAORENSHUNLISHIXIANXINLAOJIAOTI,DANMIANLINDEFENGXIANSHANGSHENG;JIERJISISITANXINLAOZONGTONG“DOUFA”,XINZONGTONGJIANGLAOZONGTONGSONGJINJIANYU;TUKUMANSITANJIXUTUIJINTIANRANQICHUKOUDUOYUANHUA,ZHONGTUYOUQIHEZUOCHUXIANWENTI;WUZIBIEKESITANZHANXIANKAIFANGYUHUOLI,ZHONGWUHEZUOQIANJINGKANHAO。SHOUSHIJIEJINGJIXIAXINGDENGYINSUYINGXIANG,ZHONGYAGEGUOJINGJIFUSUYIJIUFALI,CHUTAIYIXILIEGAIGEJUCUO,DANXIAOGUOYOUDAIGUANCHA。ELUOSI、MEIGUO、OUMENGDENGGAODUGUANZHUZHONGYADIQUXINDONGXIANG,ZHONGGUOYUZHONGYAGUOJIAHEZUOCHIXUSHENHUA。LINGWAI,ZHONGYADIQUDEANQUANWEIXIEBURONGHUSHI,GEGUOQIANGHUAFANKONGJUCUO,DIYUWAIBUWEIXIE。

  2019NIAN,ELUOSIMIANLINRIYIZENGDUODENEIWAITIAOZHAN: GUONEIZHENGJUYINHUANTUXIAN,WEIWENNANDUJIADA;JINGJIDIWEIYUNXING,FAZHANQIANJINGKANYOU;WAIJIAOLIQIUSHIXIAO,DANYUXIFANGGUANXIJIANGJUNANJIE;MEIGUOGUOHUITONGGUOZHICAIBEIXI2TIANRANQIGUANDAOXIANGMUZHICAIFAAN,LITUEZHIELUOSIYUDEGUOZAINENGYUANHEZUOSHANGJINYIBUZOUJIN;ZHONGEGUANXIYIJIANJIAO70ZHOUNIANWEIXINQIDIANMAIJIN“XINSHIDAI”。ZHONGEYOUQIHEZUO2019NIANSHIXIANZHONGDATUPO。

  ZHANWANG2020NIAN,ZHONGYADIQUDEZHENGZHIFENGXIANHESHEHUIFENGXIANKENENGHUIJINYIBUJIADA,HASAKESITANYINGSHANGHUANJINGQIANJIADEXINGSHINANYIGAIGUAN,FANHUASHILIJIANGJIXUXINGFENGZUOLANG,WEIXIEZHONGHAYOUQIHEZUO;WUZIBIEKESITANYINGSHANGHUANJINGJINYIBUYOUHUA;ZHONGTUHEZUOKUNJUJIANGHUICHIXU,TUKUMANSITANYINGSHANGHUANJINGJIANGKENENGEHUA,DANYEBUPAICHUTONGGUOGAOCENGJIAOWANGSHIXIAN“LIUANHUAMING”DEKENENG。ZHANWANG2020NIANDEELUOSI,PUJINGZONGTONGDEKONGJUNENGLIYIRANJIAOQIANG,MEIEZHIJIANDEJIEGOUXINGMAODUNCHIXUJIASHEN,ZHONGENENGYUANHEZUOYIRANCHUYU“ZHANLVEJIYUQI”。

  拉美: 由乱生变、乱变交织

  2019NIAN,CHULEWEINEIRUILALUANJUZAICHIXU,YIXIANGTAIPINGDEXINZIYOUZHUYIDIQUJIBUFENYOUQIFUJIQUCHUXIANDAGUIMODONGDANG,MILU、AGENTING、EGUADUOER、ZHILI、GELUNBIYA、BOLIWEIYADOUCHUXIANLESHEHUIDONGDANG。LAMEIDIQUYIJINGJINRUXINDEZHENGZHIDIAOZHENGQI,XUDUOGUOJIAJUNDUILILIANGJIERUGUONEIZHENGZHI,LAMEIZHENGZHISHENGTAIEHUA。SHIYELVSHANGSHENG,CAIFUFENPEIBUPINGHENG,MINZHONGDUISHEHUIDEBUMANZENGDUO。QIZHONG,“XINZHONGCHAN”DEBUMANQINGXUSHIDANGQIANLAMEISHEHUIDONGDANGDEZHUYAOYUANYIN。WAIBULILIANGTEBIESHIMEIGUODEGANYUJIAJULELAMEILUANXIANG。

  WEINEIRUILADANGQIANJINGJIXINGSHIHAOZHUAN,MADULUOZHENGQUANYIJINGDUGUO2019NIAN2YUE~4YUEZUIWEIXIANDESHIQI,RUGUONEIWAIBUTIAOJIANYOULI,MAZHENGQUANRENGRANKENENGWEICHIGENGZHANGDESHIJIAN。BOLIWEIYAYUJIJIANGHUICHIXUDONGDANGHENZHANGYIDUANSHIJIAN,BOZUOYIZHENGQUANHUOJIANGDUIYOUYIZHENGQUANSHISHIQINGSUAN,ZHEIYISHIQIZHONGGUOQIYERONGYIYINHEGUIWENTICHENGWEIXINZHENGFUFANANDEDUIXIANG;EGUADUOERBUPAICHUZAICIBAOFASHEHUISAOLUANDEKENENG,DANZONGTONGMOLEINUOBEIPOXIATAIDEFENGXIANJIAOXIAO。

  ZHANWANG2020NIAN,LAMEIDIQUJIANGYOULUANSHENGBIAN、LUANBIANJIAOZHI。CHUFEICHUXIANXINDEZHENGZHISICHAO,FOUZEGEGUOZUOYOUZHENYINGDACHENGYIZHIDEKENENGXINGBUDA,GEGUOZHENGFURENGHUIZAIDAGAILVSHANGRU“ZOUMADENG”SIDEGENGTI。CONGBAXIDEJINGYANLAIKAN,LAMEIGEGUOZHISHAOHAIXUJINGLIYIGERENQIDEMOSUOSHIQICAINENGZHAODAOSHIHEBENGUODEFAZHANMOSHI。YUCITONGSHI,SUIZHEZHONGGUOZAILAMEIYINGXIANGLIRIYIZENGJIA,TONGSHIELUOSIYUJINQIBIAOSHIJIANGZHONGXINZHILAMEIYUQIWAIJIAOZHENGCEDEYOUXIANFANGXIANG,LAMEIHUOJIANGCHENGWEIZHONGMEIESANGUOBOYIDEWUTAI。

  北美: 中美油气合作遭遇挑战

  2019NIAN,MEIGUOGUONEIJUSHIZOUSHIJIAJULEZHONGGUOQIYEZAIGAIGUODETOUZIYUJINGYINGFENGXIAN,ZHONGMEIDAGUOBOYIDUIQIYECHANSHENGDEFUMIANYINGXIANGYUJIAJUDA。TELANGPUBENRENSHENXIANDANHEAN,MEIGUOGUONEIZHENGZHILIANGJIFENHUAYANZHONG。TONGSHI,MEIGUOLI“YOUQIWANQUANDULI”DEMUBIAOGENGJIAJIEJIN,YEYANGEMINGSHIFANGCHUDEZHANLVEHONGLICHIXUYINGXIANGQUANQIUNENGYUANGEJU。ZHONGMEIYOUQIHEZUO,YINZHONGFANGFANZHIMEIGUOJIASHUI,DAOZHIZHONGGUOQIYEJINKOUMEIGUOTIANRANQIJILNGDECHENGBENDAZHANG,YOUQIHEZUODEQIANJINGZAOYUTIAOZHAN。ZHONGGUOYUJIANADADEZHENGZHIQIHOUYIRANSHENXIAN“HANDONG”,JISHUANGFANGNENGYUANHEZUODAILAIFUMIANYINGXIANG。

  ZHANWANG2020NIAN,JINGJIYINSURENGJIANGCHENGWEIYINGXIANG2020NIANDAXUANDEZHUYAOYINSU,CICIDAXUANHUOJIANGXINGCHENGYIGEWANZHENGDEDUIHUAZHENGCEKUANGJIA。ZHANGQIKAN,ZHONGMEIDIYUANZHENGZHIJINGZHENGJIANGHUIRIYIJILIE,YATAIDIQURENGWEIZHUYAOZHANCHANG,SHUANGFANGZAILAMEIDIQUDEKANGHENGYEJIANGRIQUTUXIAN。JIANADA2020NIANCAIZHENGCHIZIJIANGGAOYUYUQI,JINGJICHUXIANXIAHUAQUSHI。ZHONGJIAGUANXIHUOJIANGZAI“XIANGGANGRENQUANJIMINZHU”FAAN、DUIHUAZHENGCEDENGDUOXIANGYITISHANGZAOYUMOCA。

  非洲: 中非能源合作挑战机遇并存

  2019NIANFEIZHOUZHENGZHITUJINGYIRANFUZA,XINLAOWENTIJIAOZHI。BEIFEIGUOJIAZHENGJUDONGDANGJIAJU,ZHIZHENG20NIANZHIJIUDEAERJILIYAZONGTONGBUTEFOLIKA,YOUYUSHENTIYIZHIQIANJIA,BUDEBUFANGQIZAICIJINGXUANZONGTONG;ZHIZHENGJIN30NIANZHIJIUDESUDANQIANZONGTONGBAXIERYINJUNSHIZHENGBIAN“TURANXIATAI”,SUDANQIANJINGKANYOU;AISAIEBIYA、GANGGUO(JIN)LINGDAORENGENGTIDAILAIWENDINGFAZHANDEXINJIYU,DANYEKENENGYUSHIZHEGENGDADEWEIJI。ZHONGXIFEISAHELEDIQUKONGBUZHUYIXINGSHIYANJUN,MALI、BUJINAFASUOHENIRIERSANGUOJIAOJIECHUJIANGJIXUCHENGWEIKONGXIPINLVZUIGAO、ZUIWEIXIANDEDIQU;ZHADEGUONEIMAODUNYOUSUOSHANGSHENG,ZONGTONGDAIBIDEKONGJUNENGLIYOUZAI。DONGFEIMOSANGBIKEDENGGUODEANQUANXINGSHIYEBURONGLEGUAN,DANYOUQIHEZUODEQIANJINGKANHAO。ZHONGGUOQIYEZAIFEIZHOUDEFAZHANJIYUYUTIAOZHANBINGCUN。

  ZHANWANG2020NIAN,FEIZHOUDUOGUOJIANGYINGLAIDAXUAN,AISAIEBIYA、TANSANGNIYA、KETEDIWAYOUQIZHIDEZHUYI。MEIGUOZAIFEIZHOUZHONGDIANGUOJIA(RUKENNIYA、AISAIEBIYA)、ZHONGDIANLINGYU(RUJIJIAN、DIANXIN、NENGYUAN)YUZHONGGUODEJINGZHENGHUIZENGJIA。XIFEIDIQUDEBUZUCHONGTUDELIEDU、KONGBUZHUYIXIJIDEPINLVKENENGYEHUIZENGJIA。

  亚太: 能源地缘政治风险高企

  2019NIAN,ZHONGGUOCHENGGONGJUBANDIERJIE“YIDAIYILU”GUOJIHEZUOGAOFENGLUNTAN,“YIDAIYILU”CHANGYIZHENGZAIZOUSHENZOUSHI。JINNIAN,ZHONGMEIDIYUANZHENGZHIJINGZHENGRENGRANZHUDAOYATAIDIQUZHENGTIJUSHI,ZAITELANGPUZHENGFUTUIXING“MEIGUOYOUXIAN”DEZHANLVEYINGXIANGXIA,YATAIYIXIEGUOJIAMIANLINJIAODAYALI。MEIGUOZHENGQIANGLITUIDONG“YINTAIZHANLVE”,YIDUICHONGZHONGGUODE“YIDAIYILU”CHANGYI;MIANDIANRENGCHUYUMINZHUZHENGZHIZHUANXINGGUODUSHIQI,ZHENGFUJUNYUMINZUDIFANGWUZHUANGDECHONGTURENGZAIJIXUBINGCHENGXIANYUYANYULIEDEQUSHI,ZHONGMIANYOUQIGUANDAODENGZHONGDANENGYUANHEZUOXIANGMUDEANQUANFENGXIANYOUZAI;YINNIZUOKEZHENGFUDIERRENGANGGANGKAISHI,ZHENGFUGEBUMENRENGCHUYUJIETIJIEDUAN,QIANZAIANQUANFENGXIANHEBUWENDINGYINSUSHANGSHENG;ZHONGAOGUANXIYOUSUOEHUA,AOZHIZEZHONGGUOGANSHEQIZHENGZHIYUMINZHUTIZHI。

  ZHANWANG2020NIAN,ZHONGMEIMAOYIBUQUEDINGDEJINZHANGJUSHIKENENGJINYIBUSHENHUA,ZHEISHIDEYATAIGUOJIAZAIZHONGMEIZHIJIAN“XUANBIANZHANDUI”DEQINGXINGGENGJIAFUZA,YOUQISHIDONGNANYAGUOJIA;TONGSHI,MIANBEICHONGTU、YINBAJINZHANGGUANXIDENGQUYUREDIANWENTIHUOJIANGCHIXUFAJIAO,YINGXIANGkgCAIPIAOZHUCEGUOYUSHANGSHUDIQUDEYOUQIHEZUO。

  欧洲: 中欧合作良好势头继续

  2019NIANOUZHOUZHENGJINGCHENGXIANQUSHIXINGBIANHUA,TIAOZHANJIXUZENGJIA。ZHENGZHISHANG,“DADANGBUDA、XIAODANGBUXIAO”DESUIPIANHUAGEJUYIJINGXINGCHENG,ZHULIUZHENGDANGNANKANDAREN,DAOZHIDUOGUOZHENGJUBUWEN,PINFANXUANJU;CHENGYUANGUOMAODUNZENGJIA,XINYIJIEOUMENGJIGOULINGDAOREN“NANCHAN”。JINGJIXIAXINGYALIMINGXIANZENGJIA,GUOQULIANGNIANDEHUIFUXINGZENGZHANGZHIBU,ZUIDAJINGJITIDEGUOJIHUXIANRUJISHUXINGSHUAITUI;FAGUO“HUANGMAJIA”、DABAGONGGUANCHUANZHENGNIAN,GAIGEZULIDA,WEILAINANYOUZHONGDATUPO。LINJINSUIMO,12YUE12RIJUXINGDEYINGGUODAXUANZHONG,YUEHANXUNLINGDAODEBAOSHOUDANGHUODELEYINGGUOYIHUIXIAYUAN650GEYIXIZHONGDE365GEXIWEI,JIESHULEJINSHINIANZHONGDUOSHUSHIHOUYINGGUOCUNZAIDE“XUANFUYIHUI”JUMIAN,“TUOOU”QIANJINGZUIZHONGMINGLANGQILAI。

  DUIWAIGUANXISHANG,OUZHOUYUMEIMAODUNJINYIBUZENGJIA,MEIBUJINDUIOUHUIWUMAOYIDABANG,GENGYINYIHE、BEIXI2XIANGMUDENGWENTISHISHI“ZHANGBEIGUANXIA”,OUZHOUXIANGGUANQIYEKENENGSHOUMEIZHICAI。OUMENGANQUANYILAIBEIYUE,DANMEIGUOBUYUANCHENGDANYIWU,MAKELONGDAHUBEIYUE“NAOSIWANG”,BAOLUOUMEISHENKEFENQI。OUMENGDUIHUAMAODUNXINTAIZENGJIA,JIANGZHONGGUODINGYIWEI“HEZUOHUOBAN、TANPANDUIXIANG、JINGJIJINGZHENGZHE、ZHIDUDUISHOU”,SUIZHEZHONGGUOSHILIZENGJIA,OUMENGDUIHUAZHENGCELIANGMIANXINGBIJIANGGENGSHENKEDITIXIANCHULAI。

  ZHANWANG2020NIAN,YOUYUEOUZHIJIANQIANGHUANENGYUANHEZUODONGLEMEIGUORENDE“NAILAO”,MEIGUOSIYIHUIWUDABANGZHENGCEJIAYIEZHI,YUJIWEILAI1~2NIAN,SHUANGFANGWEIRAOYIHE、BEIXI2XIANGMUDEBOYIHAIJIANGCHIXU。ZAIZHONGMEIMAOYIMOCADAILAIMAOYIZHUANYIDEXIAOYINGDAIDONGXIA,ZHONGGUOYINGJIJICANYUOUMENGSHICHANG,ZHONGOUZHIJIANDEHEZUOYINGBIANDEGENGJIAJINMI。XUYAOQIANGDIAODESHI,DUONIANLAI,ZHONGGUODENENGYUANYANGQIYUOUZHOUDEKUAGUONENGYUANJUTOUYIZHIZAIDISANFANGSHICHANGYOUZHELIANGHAODEHEZUO,YUJI2020NIAN,SHUANGMIANHEZUODESHITOUJIANGHUIJIXU。

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