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油气中国: 七十年大发展和驱不散的能源安全之忧
发表日期: 2018-11-06 浏览次数: 字体:
 

  SHIYOUSHIGONGYEDEXUEYE,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUCHANYEDEFAZHANLICHENGYINGSHELEZHONGGUOJINGJIJUEQIHERONGRUQUANQIUHUADELICHENG。

  XINZHONGGUOCHENGLI70NIANYILAI,ZHONGGUOZHAIDIAOLEPINYOUGUODEMAOZI,CHENGWEILESHIJIECHANYOUDAGUO。YUCITONGSHI,ZHONGGUOYECHENGLESHIJIESHANGDESHIYOUXIAOFEIDAGUO,YIJIZUIDADEYOUQIJINKOUGUO。

  ZAIZHONGGUOSHIYOUCHANYEDEDIYIGEFAZHANGAOFENGQI,SHIYOUCHANLIANGTUPO1YIDUN。BUJINMANZULEGUONEIXUQIU,HAICHUKOURIBENZHUANQUWAIHUI。GAIGEKAIFANGZHIHOU,ZHONGGUOJINGJITENGFEI,SHIYOUCHANYEJINRUDIERGEGAOFENGQI,CHANLIANGTUPO2YIDUN。

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  DANZHONGGUOCONG1993NIANCHENGWEISHIYOUJINGJINKOUGUOKAISHI,SHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUZHUNIANSHANGSHENG。JIEZHIJINNIANSHANGBANNIAN,SHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUYICHAOGUO70%,TIANRANQIDUIWAIYICUNDUCHAOGUO45%。ERLINGRENDANYOUDESHI,GUONEISHIYOUCHANLIANGTUPO2YIDUNZHIHOUYOUDIEDAOBUZU2YIDUN,JINRULEZENGCHANDEPINGJINGQI。

  BAOZHANGNENGYUANANQUANWUYISHITOUDENGDASHI。ZAIDUIWAIYICUNDUDUANQINEINANYIXIAJIANGDEQINGKUANGXIA,ZENGJIAJINKOULAIYUAN、DIAOZHENGNENGYUANJIEGOU,YIJIGULIZHONGGUOQIYEZOUCHUQUDENGTUJINGDOUSHIBAOZHANGYOUQIGONGYINGANQUANDEFANGFA。

  DANJUECECENGRENWEI,TISHENGGUONEIYOUQICHANLIANGSHIBAOZHENGGONGYINGANQUANZUIZHONGYAODETUJING。JINGUANCHUANTONGLILUNRENWEIZHONGGUODENENGYUANZIYUANBINGFUSHI“PINYOU、SHAOQI、FUMEI”,DANLISHIDUOCIZHENGMING,YOUQIKANTANKAIFADELILUNZONGZAIBUDUANGENGXIN,XINJISHUDEMEIYICICHUXIAN,DOUNENGZHUTUIYOUQICHANLIANGYUESHENG。MEIGUOJIUYIJINGZOUGUOLECONGSHIYOUCHUKOUGUODAOJINKOUGUO,ZAIDAOCHUKOUGUODEGUIJIBIANQIAN。ZHONGGUOYUMEIGUODEZIYUANBINGFUBUTONG,BUYIDINGNENGZHONGFUMEIGUODEGUIJI,DANCONGZHONGGUOYEYANQICHANLIANGZENGZHANGQINGKUANGLAIKAN,MUQIANZHONGGUOFEICHANGGUIYOUQIDEZENGCHANQIANLIRENGRANJIAODA。

  YEYOUYENEIRENSHIZHUZHANG,BUYONGKONGHUANGDUIWAIYICUNDU。YOUQICHANYESHIYIGEGUOJIMAOYIJIDUFADADEXINGYE,SHIJIESHANGYOUZHONGDUODEYOUQICHUKOUGUO,YIXIEFADAGUOJIADEYOUQIDUIWAIYICUNDUBIZHONGGUOGENGGAO。ERQIEZHONGGUODESHIYOUGONGSIHAIZAIGUOJISHANGDUOGEDIQUHEZUOKAIFAYOUQIZIYUAN,HAIWAIQUANYIYOUQICHANLIANGJIEJIN2YIDUN。JIANGHAIWAIQUANYIYOUYIJIJINGCHUKOUDECHENGPINYOUZHESUANXIALAI,ZHONGGUODESHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUJIANGDAFUXIAJIANG。

  ZHEYANWEILAI,YOUQIDUIWAIYICUNDUGENGSHIBUYONGGUOYUDANYOU。GUOJIATONGJIJUSHUJUXIANSHI,2018NIANQUANGUONENGYUANXIAOFEIZONGLIANGWEI46.4YIDUNBIAOZHUNMEI,QIZHONG,MEITANZHANNENGYUANXIAOFEIDEBIZHONGWEI59.0%, FEIHUASHINENGYUANZHANBI14.3%,YOUQIZHANXIAOFEIZONGLIANGDEBIZHONGFENBIEWEI18.8%HE7.8%。YICIJISUAN,ZHONGGUOYICINENGYUANDEZONGTIZIJILVYUEWEI80%ZUOYOU。SUIZHENENGYUANZHUANXINGDEBUDUANTUIJIN,FEIHUASHINENGYUANDEZHANBIHAIJIANGJIXUTISHENG,YICINENGYUANZIJILVZHANGYUANLAIKANBUHUIDAFUXIAJIANG。

  DANSHI,NENGYUANZHUANXINGSHIYIGEZHANGQIDEGUOCHENG。YENEIRENSHIRENWEI,ZAI10NIANDAO15NIANDESHIJIANLI,KEZAISHENGNENGYUANZAINENGYUANJIEGOULIZHUYAOTIDAIMEITANDEFENE,YOUQISUOZHANDEBILIHAIJIANGJIXUSHANGSHENG。YINCI,kgCAIPIAOZHUCEZAIKEGUANKANDAIYOUQIDUIWAIYICUNDUDETONGSHI,RENGRANYAOBAOZHANGHETISHENGGUONEIYOUQIGONGYINGLIANG。

  大庆“会战”

\

  DAQINGYOUTIANZUANJINGDI ERDADUIDADUIZHANGWANGJIN XI(ZUOER)HEGONGRENMEN YIQIZUANJING。TU/XINHUA

  JINDAISHIYOUGONGYE19SHIJIHOUBANYEYIZAIZHONGGUOMENGYA。XIANWEIRENZHIDESHI,NEISHIDEZHONGGUOSHIGEBUZHEBUKOUDESHIYOUJINGJINKOUGUO,DUIWAIYICUNDUBIXIANZAIHAIGAO。

  1867NIAN,MEIGUODENGGUOJIAKAISHIXIANGZHONGGUOCHUKOUSHIYOU。DANGSHI,SHIYOUZAIHUABEICHENGWEI“YANGYOU”,JINKOULIANGJINCIYUYAPIAN、MIANSHA,SHIZHONGGUOJINKOUJINEDISANWEIDEDAZONGSHANGPIN。ZAI1904NIAN-1948NIANDE45NIANZHONG,JIUZHONGGUOLEIJISHENGCHANYUANYOU278.5WANDUN,ERTONGQIJINKOU“YANGYOU”2800WANDUN。KEJIANDANGSHIDESHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUZHIGAO。

  XINZHONGGUOCHENGLISHI,JINGLIDUONIANZHANLUANDESHIYOUGONGYEJICHUSHESHICANPOBUKAN。1949NIAN,QUANGUOYUANYOUNIANCHANLIANGJIN12WANDUN。JINGGUOSANNIANHUIFUHOU,DAO1952NIANDI,QUANGUOYUANYOUCHANLIANGZENGZHANGZHI43.5WANDUN,WEI1949NIANDE3.6BEI,WEIJIUZHONGGUOZUIGAONIANCHANLIANGDE1.3BEI。QIZHONGTIANRANYOU19.54WANDUN,ZHANYUANYOUZONGCHANLIANGDE45%,RENZAOYOU24WANDUN,ZHAN55%。

  SHIYOUCHANLIANGYOULEDAFUDETISHENG,DANRENGBUNENGMANZUDANGSHIDEXUYAO。WEILEJINKUAITIGAOSHIYOUCHANLIANG、TISHENGSHIYOUGONGYESHUIPING,1952NIAN8YUE,ZHONGGONGZHONGYANGMINGLINGJIANGZHONGGUORENMINJIEFANGJUNDI19JUN57SHIZHUANYEWEISHIYOUGONGCHENGDIYISHI。SHIYOUSHIWEISHIYOUCHANYEGONGXIANLEYIZHISHENGLIJUN,DANSHIYOUKANTANKAIFASHIYIGEJISHUMIJIXINGHEZIJINMIJIXINGCHANYE,HAIXUYAOYOUGENGDUODEZIJINHEKEJITOURU,CAINENGSHIDANGSHIBORUODESHIYOUCHANYEYOUZHIDEFEIYUE。

  CONG1955NIANQI,DIZHIBUHESHIYOUBUFENGONGPEIHE,XIANHOUZAIHUABEIPINGYUANYUSONGLIAOPENDIZHANKAILEQUANMIANZONGHEDIZHIDIAOCHA。1956NIAN1YUE,SHIYOUBUZHAOKAI“DIYIJIEQUANGUOSHIYOUKANTANHUIYI”,WEIZHONGGUODESHIYOUGONGYECHUQIFAZHANTANMINGLEFANGXIANG。HUIYIJIANYI“JIANGQUANGUOHANYOUDIQUZUOCHUQUANMIANGUIHUA,CONGJIEJUEGENBENWENTIZHESHOU,YOUBUZHOUDIJINXINGKANTAN”。

  DAOSHANGSHIJI50NIANDAIMO,QUANGUOCHUBUXINGCHENGYUMEN、XINJIANG、QINGHAI、SICHUANSIGESHIYOUTIANRANQIJIDI。1959NIAN,QUANGUOYUANYOUCHANLIANGDADAO373.3WANDUN。QIZHONGSIGEJIDIGONGCHANYUANYOU276.3WANDUN,ZHANQUANGUOYUANYOUZONGCHANLIANGDE73.9%,SICHUANTIANRANQICHANLIANGCONG1957NIANDE6000DUOWANLIFANGMITIGAODAO2.5YILIFANGMI。

  DAQINGYOUTIANDEFAXIANYEZAISHANGSHIJI50NIANDAIMOQI。1959NIAN9YUE26RI,SONGLIAOPENDIDESONGJI3JINGCHUYOU,BIAOZHIZHEDAQINGYOUTIANDEDANSHENG。DANDANGSHIDEZHONGGUO,ZHENGCHUYUSANNIANKUNNANSHIQI,ZAIQUEQIANQUEJISHUDEQINGKUANGXIA,DAQINGYOUTIANDEKAIFASHIFENJIANNAN。ZHONGYANGJUEDINGYI“DAHUIZHAN”DEXINGSHI,FADONGQUANGUOGEZHONGLILIANGKAIFAkgCAIPIAOZHUCEDAQINGYOUTIAN。

  1960NIAN3YUE,GUANXIZHONGGUOSHIYOUGONGYEMINGYUNDESHIYOUHUIZHANZAIDAQINGJIEKAIXUMU。ZHONGYANGJUNWEICHOUDIAO3WANDUOMINGFUZHUANGUANBINGCANJIAHUIZHAN。QUANGUOYOU5000DUOJIAGONGCHANGQIYEWEIDAQINGSHENGCHANJIDIANCHANPINHESHEBEI,200GEKEYANSHEJIDANWEIZAIJISHUSHANGZHIYUANHUIZHAN,SHIYOUXITONG37GECHANGKUANGYUANXIAODEJINGBINGQIANGJIANGHEDAPIWUZILUXUJIZHONGDAQING。

  1963NIANDI,DAQINGYOUTIANDAHUIZHANJIESHU。ZAINEISANNIANDUODESHIJIAN,DAQINGYOUTIANLEIJISHENGCHANYUANYOU1500WANDUN,SHIZHONGGUOSHUAIDIAOLE“PINYOUGUO”MAOZI。1963NIAN12YUE,ZHOUENLAIZONGLIZAIDIERCIQUANGUORENMINDAIBIAODAHUIDISICIHUIYISHANGXUANBU,ZHONGGUOXUYAODESHIYOU,XIANZAIYIJINGKEYIJIBENZIJI,ZHONGGUORENMINSHIYONG“YANGYOU”DESHIDAI,JIJIANGYIQUBUFUFAN。

  YIDAQINGYOUTIANWEIJICHU,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUGONGYEZHENZHENGYINGLAILEDIYILUNGAOSUFAZHANDESHIQI。1964NIAN,ZHONGGUOYOUZAIHUABEIDIQUKAIZHANLESHIYOUHUIZHAN。YONGLEBUDAOLIANGNIANDESHIJIAN,TANMINGLEYIGE4.6YIDUNDEDAYOUTIAN。

  ZI1976NIANZHIHOU,DAQINGYOUTIANLIANXU27NIANSHIXIANNIANCHANYUANYOU5000WANDUNYISHANG,CHUANGZAOLESHIJIETONGLEIYOUTIANKAIFASHISHANGDEQIJI。DAO1978NIAN,QUANGUOYUANYOUCHANLIANGTUPO1YIDUN。CHULEDAQINGYOUTIANGONGXIANDEBANBIJIANGSHAN,BOHAIWANPENDICHANYOU4340WANDUN,SHIDANGSHIDELINGYIDACHANYOUDIQU。

  CONG1966NIANDAO1978NIANDE13NIANJIAN,ZHONGGUOYUANYOUCHANLIANGYIMEINIANDIZENG18.6%DESUDUZENGZHANG,NIANCHANLIANGTUPOLE1YIDUN,YUANYOUJIAGONGNENGLIZENGZHANG5BEIDUO。CONG1973NIANQI,ZHONGGUOHAIKAISHIDUIRIBENCHUKOUYUANYOU,WEIGUOJIAHUANQULEDALIANGWAIHUI。

  SHIYOUCHANLIANGTUPO1YIDUN,WEIHOULAIDEGAIGEKAIFANGJINGJIkgCAIPIAOZHUCEDIANDINGLENENGYUANJICHU,YEDIANDINGLEZHONGGUOSHIYOUGONGYEFAZHANDELILUNHEJISHUJICHU。

  2.15亿吨,历史峰值

  WEIYUBOHAIWANDECHENG BEIYOUTIANSHIZHONGGUOHAIYU DIYIGEWANQUANANZHAOGUO JIGUIFAN、BIAOZHUNkgCAIPIAOZHUCE DEXIANDAIHUAYOUTIAN。TU/XINHUA

  ZHONGGUOSHIYOUCHANLIANGZAI1978NIANDADAO1YIDUNZHIHOU,SHIYOUGONGYEBINGMEIYOULIANXUBAOCHIXIANGSHANGDEJIANTOU,ZHONGJIANJINGLILEPODUOQUZHE。JINGGUOSHANGSHIJI80NIANDAICHUQIDEYIFANZHENGCEDIAOZHENGHETANSUOZHIHOU,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUCHANLIANGCONG80NIANDAIHOUQIKAISHILEZHANGDA30NIANDEWENBUZENGCHANSHIQI。

  1979NIAN、1980NIAN,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUCHANLIANGLIANXULIANGNIANPAIHUAIBUQIAN。DAO1981NIAN,QUANGUOYUANYOUCHANLIANGJIAOGAOFENGNIANXIAJIANGJIN600WANDUN。

  1979NIANHAIFASHENGLEZHENDONGQUANSHIYOUXINGYEDEBOHAI2HAOCHENCHUANSHIGU。GAISHIGUSHISHIYOUXITONGZI1949NIANYILAIZUIZHONGDADESIWANGSHIGU,YESHISHIJIEHAIYANGSHIYOUKANTANLISHISHANGSHAOJIANDE。1979NIAN11YUE25RI,SHIYOUBUHAIYANGSHIYOUKANTANJU“BOHAI2HAO”ZUANJINGCHUANZAIBOHAIWANQIANYIJINGWEITUOHANGZUOYETUZHONGFANCHEN,YUNAN72REN,JINGJISUNSHIDA3700DUOWANYUAN。

  BOHAI2HAOCHENCHUANSHIGUCHULERENYUANHECAIWUSUNSHIJUDA,YEDUIQUANGUOSHIYOUXINGYEDESHIQIDAJIJUDA。SHIQIDILUO、KANTANKAIFATOUZIJIANSHAO、ZIYUANCHULIANGXIAJIANG、CHANLIANGXIAJIANG……DUOZHONGFUMIANYINSUJINGXINGZHEDANGSHIDEYOUQIZHUGUANBUMENBIXUYAOZUOCHUGAIGE。

  JIEHEDANGSHIDEHONGGUANJINGJIHUANJINGHESHIYOUGONGYEDEQINGKUANG,SHIYOUBUTICHULE1YIDUNYUANYOUCHANLIANGBAOGANDEGAIGESILU。1981NIAN6YUE3RI,GUOWUYUANBANGONGTINGFACHU 《GUOWUYUANBANGONGTINGZHUANFAGUOJIANENGYUANWEIGUANYUXIEDIAOZUZHISHIYOUBUCHAOCHANYUANYOU、CHENGPINYOUCHUKOUANPAIWENTIBAOGAODETONGZHI》。GAITONGZHITICHU: YUANSHIYOUGONGYEBUCHENGBAONIANCHANYUANYOU1YIDUN,CHAOCHUBUFENYUNXUYUANSHIYOUGONGYEBUCHUKOU,SUODECHAJIADE85%ZUOWEISHIYOUKANTANKAIFADEJIJIN,15%ZUOWEIZHIGONGDEJITIFULIHEGERENJIANGJINJIJIN,SUODEWAIHUIJINELIUCHENG,YONGYUJINKOUQICAIYUJISHU。

  1YIDUNYUANYOUCHANLIANGBAOGANZHENGCESHISHIHOU,SHIYOUXINGYETIGAOLEJIJIXING。1981NIAN-1985NIAN,TOURUKANTANZIJINNIANJUNDIZENG19.5%。TONGSHI,SHIYOUCHANLIANGZHIDIEHUISHENG,CONG1981NIANDE1.01YIDUN,TIGAODAO1985NIANDE1.25YIDUN。

  SHENGLIYOUTIANZAIZHEIQIJIANDEZHUANBIANZUIWEIMINGXIAN。GAIYOUTIAN1978NIANDEYUANYOUCHANLIANGWEI1945WANDUN,1981NIANXIAJIANG300DUOWANDUNZHI1611WANDUN。ZAINEIQIJIAN,YIXIESHIYOUZHUANJIARENWEI,JIYANGAOXIANKANTANYIJINRU“WUZHENGSHILINGJIEDUAN”,SHENGLIYOUTIANYUANYOUNIANCHANLIANGYAOJIANGZHI1100WANDUNCAINENGWENZHU。DANSHIXINGLECHANLIANGBAOGANZHENGCEZHIHOU,SHENGLIYOUTIANZHONGZULELINGDAOBANZI,DIAODONGZHIGONGDEJIJIXING,NULITANSUOFUSHIYOUQIJUJIDAI,YUANYOUCHANLIANGZHUBUSHANGZHANG,DAO1991NIANSHANGSHENGDAOLE3355WANDUN,BINGQIEBAOCHI2400WANDUNYISHANGDECHANLIANGJIN30NIAN。

  ZAISHANGSHIJI80NIANDAI,SHIYOUYEHAIDANSHENGLEYINGXIANGBUYAYUDAQINGHUIZHANDETALIMUHUIZHAN。1984NIAN,TALIMUPENDIDIKUANGBUSHACAN2JINGCHUYOU。1989NIAN,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUTIANRANQIZONGGONGSIYI“LIANGXINLIANGGAO”(JICAIYONGXINGONGYIJISHUHEXINGUANLITIZHI,ZUZHIKAIZHANYICHANGGAOSHUIPING、GAOXIAOYIDESHIYOUKANTANKAIFAHUIZHAN)FANGZHEN,ZHANKAILETALIMUSHIYOUHUIZHAN。LINGYIFANGMIAN,SHIYOUBU1983NIANZHIJIECONGGUOWAIGUQINGLE10GEDIZHENDUI,CAIYONGSHIJIESHANGZUIXIANJINDEJISHUZHUANGBEILAIZHONGGUOGAOKANTAN,QIZHONG3GEBEIBUSHUDAOTALIMUPENDI。

  TALIMUSHIYOUHUIZHANBUJINDAKAILETALIMUPENDISHIYOUKAIFADEDAMEN,HAICHENGWEIGAIGEKAIFANGZHIHOUSHIYOUXINGYEYINJINWAIZIDEYIGEXIANXINGSHIYANDIAN。ZAINEIZHIHOUDE1985NIAN,GUOWUYUANJUEDINGKAIFANGNANFANG11SHENGQUDESHIYOUZIYUANJIWAIZI,KAIZHANDUIWAIHEZUO。1993NIANYOUJIANGDUIWAIHEZUODELINGYUJINYIBUKUOZHANDAOBEIFANG10GESHENGQU,XINGCHENGLELUYUSHIYOUZIYUANQUANMIANDUIWAIKAIFANGDEGEJU。

  HAISHANGSHIYOUZIYUANDEDUIWAIKAIFANGYEZAITONGSHIJINXING。1982NIAN1YUE30RI,《ZHONGHUARENMINGONGHEGUODUIWAIHEZUOKAICAIHAIYANGSHIYOUZIYUANTIAOLI》JIQIPEITAODE30DUOGETONGYONGFALVFAGUIDUIWAIFABU。DANGNIAN2YUE8RI,ZHONGGUOHAIYANGSHIYOUZONGGONGSIZAIJINGCHENGLI,KAISHIYIJUGAITIAOLIHEPEITAOFALVFAGUI,XINGSHIHAIYANGSHIYOUKANTAN、KAIFA、SHENGCHANHEXIAOSHOUDEZHUANYINGQUAN。

  1981NIANYIHOU,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUCHANYESHIXIANLEZHANGDA30DUONIANDEZENGZHANGZHOUQI,TONGSHI,TIANRANQICHANYEYECONGSHANGSHIJI90NIANDAIZHIHOUJIAKUAIFAZHAN。2010NIAN,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUCHANLIANGYUESHANG2YIDUN,QIHOU,SHIYOUCHANLIANGJIXUBAOCHILEWUNIANDEZENGZHANG。DAO2015NIAN,GUONEIYUANYOUZONGCHANLIANGDADAO2.15YIDUNDELISHIZUIGAOZHI。

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  能源转型时代: 减产还是增产?

  2015NIANZHIHOU,GUOJIYOUJIACONGGAOWEIXIADIE,SHIJIESHIYOUSHICHANGZHENGTIGONGYINGKUANSONG。ZAICIBEIJINGXIA,GUONEIGESHIYOUGONGSISHIXINGLEXIANCHANZHENGCE。2016NIAN,GUONEISHIYOUCHANLIANGDIEPO2YIDUN,QUANNIANSHENGCHANSHIYOU1.996YIDUN,ZHEISHIXINZHONGGUOCHENGLIYILAIDENIANDUZUIDAJIANCHANLIANG。DANGNIAN,QUANGUOTIANRANQICHANLIANGYETONGBIXIAJIANGLE1%。

  2016NIANKAISHI,GUONEISANDASHIYOUGONGSIXUEJIANSHANGYOUKANTANKAIFAJIHUATOUZIJINE,ZHUDONGJIANSHAODIXIAOLVYOUTIANDEKAIFA。ZHONGSHIYOUSHEZHINEIBUTOUZISHOUYILVDEYINGZHIBIAO,ZAILIAOHE、XINJIANGDENGDUOGEYOUTIANYAJIANWUXIAOCHANLIANG。ZHONGSHIHUAQIXIADEZHULIYOUTIANSHENGLIYOUTIANYEGUANTINGLEDUOGEDIXIAOWUXIAOQUKUAI。

  2017NIANHE2018NIAN,GUONEISHIYOUCHANLIANGJIXUXIADIE,FENBIEJIANGZHI1.92YIDUNHE1.89YIDUN。

  ZAIGUONEIYUANYOUJIANCHANDEZHEISANNIANLI,QUANQIUYIJIGUONEIKAIQILEJIJITUIJINNENGYUANZHUANXINGDEXINSHIQI。DITAN、QINGJIEDENENGYUANCHANPINBEISHIWEIWEILAIDENENGYUANZHULI。ERSHIYOUSHIGAOTANDEHUASHINENGYUAN,YINGKONGZHIXIAOFEI、JIANGDINENGYUANZHANBI。

  TONGSHI,ZHONGGUOYOUTIANDEKEGUANTIAOJIANYEHENNANZHICHENGSHIYOUCHANLIANGDEJIXUZENGZHANG。DAQINGYOUTIAN、SHENGLIYOUTIANDENGYIPIZHULIYOUTIANZHENGTIJINRUZHONGGAOHANSHUIJIEDUAN,KAICAINANDUBUDUANJIADA,YICHUXIANZIYUANLIEZHIHUA、CHANLIANGZIRANDIJIANDENGQINGKUANG。

  BUGUO,JIYUQINGJIEHUADENENGYUANZHUANXINGQUSHI,YUSHIYOUBUTONG,TIANRANQIBEISHIZUOQINGJIENENGYUAN,RENGRANBEIJIJITUIGUANG。ZAIJINJINIANDESHIJIANLI,ZHONGGUOYIYEYANQIWEIZHUDEFEICHANGGUITIANRANQIKAIFAQUDEJIAODAJINZHAN,TIANRANQIZONGCHANLIANGDAFUTIGAO。

\

  ZAI2016NIANCHANLIANGWEIDIE1%ZHIHOU,TIANRANQICHANLIANGHENKUAIHUIGUISHANGSHENGTONGDAO。2017NIAN,QUANGUOTIANRANQICHANLIANG1330.07YILIFANGMI,TONGBIZENGZHANG8.0%。2018NIAN,QUANGUOTIANRANQICHANLIANG1415.12YILIFANGMI,TONGBIZENGZHANG6.4%。XIAOFEILIANGBICHANLIANGZENGZHANGGENGKUAI。2018NIAN,QUANGUOTIANRANQIXIAOFEILIANGDADAO2808YILIFANGMI,TONGBIZENGZHANG17.7%。NIANZENG422YILIFANGMI,ZENGSUCHUANGSHIJIEJILU。

  ZHONGGUOSHIYOUJITUANJINGJIJISHUYANJIUYUANGUOJIAGAODUANZHIKUSHOUXIZHUANJIAWANGZHENDUI《CAIJING》JIZHEBIAOSHI,QUANQIUDUINENGYUANZHUANXINGDEQUSHIMEIYOUDADEZHENGYI,DANGEGEGUOJIAZHUANXINGDEBUFAQUJUEYUJINGJIFAZHANSHUIPING、NENGYUANJICHUSHESHI、ZHENGCEZHICHILIDUHEJISHUTUPODESUDU。ZAIZHONGGUO,WEILAI10NIANDAO15NIANNEI,HUASHINENGYUANDOURENGJIANGSHIZHULI,HUASHINENGYUANXIAOFEIJIANGZHANZHENGTIDE80%ZUOYOU。KEZAISHENGNENGYUANGUIMODEZENGJIAZHUYAOTIDAIMEITANZHANBIDEJIANGDI,DUANQINEICONGJIEGOUSHANGNANYISHIXIANDUIYOUQIDEDAGUIMOTIDAI。JINGUANXINNENGYUANQICHEZENGZHANGSUDUHENKUAI,DANSHIYOUDEXIAOFEIZAIDAFENGHOURENGJIANGBAOCHIWENDING,TIANRANQIDEXIAOFEIJIANGDAFUZENGZHANG。WEILAI15NIAN,QINGJIENENGYUANYAOMANZUXINZENGNENGYUANXUQIU,2035NIANHOUKEZAISHENGNENGYUANTIDAIHUASHINENGYUANSUDUJIAKUAI,BINGJIANGZHUJIANCHENGWEIZHULINENGYUANZHIYI。

  MUQIAN,ZHONGGUOZHENGFUDUIYOUQIXIAOFEIHESHENGCHANZHIDINGDEZONGTISILUSHI“WENYOUZENGQI”。ZAIKEZAISHENGNENGYUANDUANQINEINANYIDALIANGTIDAIYOUQIDEQINGKUANGXIA,YENEIDEGONGSHISHI: ZHONGGUODESHIYOUCHANLIANGMUQIANYINGBAOCHIWENDING,TIANRANQICHANLIANGZEHAIKEYIJIXUZENGZHANG。

  CONGQUNIANDIYILAI,YI“ZENGCHANSHANGCHU”WEIMUDEDEXINYILUNSHIYOUDAHUIZHANZAIQUANGUOLAKAIWEIMU。JINNIANSHANGBANNIAN,XIAOGUOYIJINGXIANXIAN。ZHONGSHIYOU、ZHONGSHIHUAHEZHONGHAIYOUJINNIANSHANGBANNIANDEGUONEIYUANYOUCHANLIANGJUNSHIXIANZENGZHANG。GUOJIAFAGAIWEITONGJISHUJUXIANSHI,SHANGBANNIANGUONEIYUANYOUZONGCHANLIANG9504WANDUN,BISHANGNIANTONGQIZENGZHANG0.8%。

  ZHONGSHIYOUJINGJIJISHUYANJIUYUANFABUDE《2050NIANSHIJIEYUZHONGGUONENGYUANZHANWANG(2019NIANBAN)》YUJI,ZAI2030NIANQIAN,GUONEIYUANYOUCHANLIANGYOUWANGWEICHIZAI2YIDUNZUOYOU。TIANRANQICHANLIANGJIANGWENBUZENGZHANG,DAO2035NIANKEDADAO3000YILIFANGMI,NIANJUNZENGZHANG2.8%。2035NIANHOU,YEYANQIDENGFEICHANGGUITIANRANQIDECHANLIANGJIANGYUCHANGGUIQICHANLIANGGUIMOXIANGDANG。

  对外依存度高不可怕

  1993NIAN,ZHONGGUOCHENGWEISHIYOUJINGJINKOUGUO。CIHOU,SHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUXUNSUPANSHENG。2005NIAN,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUCHAOGUOWUCHENG,DADAO51.88%。2018NIAN,ZHONGGUOJINKOU4.4YIDUN,SHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUSHENGZHI69.8%。TIANRANQIDEJINKOUSHIJIANXIANGDUIJIAODUAN,DANDUIWAIYICUNDUSHANGSHENGDESUDUBUYAYUSHIYOU。2018NIAN,ZHONGGUOJINKOUTIANRANQI1254YILIFANGMI,DUIWAIYICUNDUSHANGSHENGZHI45.3%,CONGSHOUCIJINKOUTIANRANQIDAOYICUNDUJINBAN,ZHIYONGLEBUDAO15NIANSHIJIAN。

  DUANQINEI,SHIYOUDEDUIWAIYICUNDURENGJIANGJUGAOBUXIA,TIANRANQIDEDUIWAIYICUNDUHAIJIANGJIXUSHANGSHENG。

  2018NIAN,TIANRANQIZAIQUANGUOYICINENGYUANXIAOFEIZONGLIANGZHONGDEBIZHONGWEI7.8%,SHIYOUZHANBIWEI18.8%。ZHONGGUOSHIYOUJITUANJINGJIJISHUYANJIUYUANFABUDE《2050NIANSHIJIEYUZHONGGUONENGYUANZHANWANG(2019NIANBAN)》YUJI,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUXIAOFEIJIANGZAI2030NIANQIANHOUDAFENG,WEI7.05YIDUN。ZHONGGUODEYICINENGYUANXUQIUZEJIANGZAI2035NIAN-2040NIANJINRUFENGZHIPINGTAIQI。YUJIZAI2035NIAN,SHIYOUHETIANRANQIZAIYICINENGYUANXUQIUDEZHANBIFENBIEWEI17.4%HE14.2%。FEIHUASHINENGYUANDEZHANBICONGMUQIANBUDAO15%TIGAODAO28%。2035NIANZHIHOU,YOUQIDEZONGZHANBIJIANGBAOCHIZAI31.5%ZUOYOU。

  YEJIUSHISHUO,2035NIANSHIGUANJIANDEFENSHUILING。ZAINEIZHIHOU,YOUQIDEDUIWAIYICUNDUCAIYOUKENENGDAFUJIANGDI。

  “用途不一样,可再生能源对石油的替代是很难的,石油是中国能源安全领域的焦点。天然气相对来说替代的空间更大、更容易替代,天然气对外依存走高是相对可控的。”厦门大学中国能源政策研究院院长林伯强对《财经》记者说,油气对外依存度高并不意味着就一定不安全。整体上看,中国的一次能源自给率仍然属于较高水平,能源安全还是可控的。

  YOUYUSHIJIEYOUQISHENGCHANHEXIAOFEIDEDILIFENBUBUJUNHENG,YOUQIXINGYEGUOJIMAOYISHIFENFADA。FANGYANQUANQIU,ZHONGGUODEYOUQIDUIWAIYICUNDUBINGBUSHIZUIGAODE。ZHONGGUOJINLINRIBEN、HANGUO,YIJIOUZHOUDEFAGUO、DEGUODENGGUOSHIYOUXIAOFEIQUANBUYILAIJINKOU,DUIWAIYICUNDUJIBENSHANGSHI100%。

  YUZHEIXIEGAODUYILAIJINKOUDEGUOJIAXIANGBI,“kgCAIPIAOZHUCEDESHEHUIXINGTAIBUTONG,ZHONGGUOJINKOUYOUQIDEQINGKUANGSHOUDIYUANZHENGZHIYINGXIANGGENGDA。ERQIEZHONGGUOJINKOUDEYOUQISHULIANGBITAMENDAHENDUO,JINKOUDENANDUYEJIUGENGDA。”LINBOQIANGSHUO,WEILEBAOZHENGYOUQIJINKOUANQUAN,kgCAIPIAOZHUCEYINGGAIJIXUZENGJIAJINKOULAIYUANDI,NULIJIEJUE“MALIUJIAHAIXIAKUNJING”。TONGSHI,JIAKUAITIGAOGUONEIZHANLVESHIYOUCHUBEIDENENGLI,JIAKUAIGAOSUTIELU、GUIDAOJIAOTONGHEDIANDONGQICHEDEFAZHAN。

  QISHI,NEIXIEGAODUIWAIYICUNDUDEFADAGUOJIAYEFEICHANGZHONGSHIZHANLVESHIYOUCHUBEIHETIANRANQIYINGJIDIAOFENGNENGLIkgCAIPIAOZHUCE。WANGZHENBIAOSHI,YIRIBENWEILI,GAIGUOCENGSHISHIJIESHANGZUIDADETIANRANQIJINKOUGUO,ZHONGGUOYUQUNIANCHAOYUERIBEN,DANRIBENRENGRANSHIQUANQIUZUIDADELNG(YEHUATIANRANQI)JINKOUGUO。RIBENDUIWAIQIANDINGDELNGJINKOUHETONGJIBENSHIZHANGXIE,HEXINYIBAOZHANGLIANGWEIZHU,JIAGECIZHI。RIBENDEZHANLVESHIYOUCHUBEILIANGJUDA,ZHESUANWEIXIAOFEITIANSHUSHISHIJIESHANGZUIGAODE。ERQIERIBENSHUYUOECDGUOJIA,JIYUGUOJINENGYUANSHUDEXIETONGBAOZHANGJIZHI,ZAIJIASHANGRIBENDUIHAIWAIQUANYIYOUDECHIXUTOUZI,QIYOUQIANQUANXINGDEDAOLEYOUXIAOBAOZHANG。

  WANGZHENRENWEI,ZHONGGUOSHISHIJIEDIYIZHIZAOYEDAGUO、DIYIMAOYIDAGUO,CHANPINCHUKOUDAOSHIJIEGEDI。ZHONGGUORENKOUJISHUDA,YOUQIZIYUANBINGFUBINGBUZHANYOUSHI,YOUQIDUIWAIYICUNDUPIANGAOSHINANYIBIMIANDE,CONGXINLISHANGBUYINGGUOYUKONGHUANG。MUQIAN,GUONEIDESHIYOUCHANLIANGYINQIANJINIANDIYOUJIADEYINGXIANGYOUSUOXIAHUAHOUZHENGZAIWENBUHUISHENG,ZHIMIYOUHEHAISHANGHAIYOUJIAODAZENGCHANQIANLI,TIANRANQISHENGCHANHAICHUZAICHENGZHANGJIEDUAN,ZENGZHANGQIANLIHENDA。WEILAI,GUOJIAZHANLVESHIYOUCHUBEIKUHAIYAOJINYIBUkgCAIPIAOZHUCE,BINGSUIZHEYOUQITIZHIGAIGEDETUIJIN,TIANRANQICHANGONGCHUXIAOTIXIkgCAIPIAOZHUCELIDUZHENGZAIJIADA,YOULIYUBAOZHANGZHONGGUOYOUQISHICHANGJIANKANGPINGWENFAZHAN,QUEBAOGONGYINGANQUAN。

  LINGYIFANGMIAN,YOUYENEIRENSHIRENWEI,ZHONGGUOYOUQIDUIWAIYICUNDUDEZHENSHISHUZIQISHIBINGBUGAO。RUGUOJIANGZHONGGUOCHUKOUCHENGPINYOUZHESUANDIAO,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUJIUKEXIAJIANGYUE11GEBAIFENDIAN。ZAIJIANGZHONGQIZAIHAIWAIYONGYOUDEQUANYICHANLIANGJIRU,DUIWAIYICUNDUZEJINYIBUXIAJIANGZHI33%ZUOYOU。

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