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能源安全临3大挑战 石油等对外依存度上升
发表日期: 2018-10-28 浏览次数: 字体:
 

  2018NIANZHONGGUOSHIYOUJINKOULIANGWEI4.4YIDUN,TONGBIZENGZHANG11%,SHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUSHENGZHI69.8%。

  TIANRANQIJINKOULIANG1254YILIFANGMI,TONGBIZENGZHANG31.7%,DUIWAIYICUNDUSHENGZHI45.3%。

  2018NIANZHONGGUONENGYUANXIAOFEIBIZHONGZHONGMEITANZHAN59.0%,BULIYUDITANQINGJIEFAZHAN。

  NENGYUANSHIGUOMINJINGJIFAZHANDEZHONGYAOZHICHENG,NENGYUANANQUANZHIJIEYINGXIANGDAOGUOJIAANQUAN、KECHIXUFAZHANYIJISHEHUIWENDING。ZHONGGUONENGYUANANQUANWENTIDESHIZHISHINENGYUANCHUBEIHEGONGYINGJIEGOUYUNENGYUANXIAOFEIJIEGOUBUWANQUANPIPEI,BINGQIEMAODUNRENGZAIBUDUANJIASHEN。YUCITONGSHI,ZHONGGUOJINGJISHEHUIFAZHANMIANLINDEWAIBUHUANJINGYEZHENGFASHENGBIANHUA,BUFENGUOJIAMINCUIZHUYIXINGQI、MAOYIJINZHANGHEMAOYIBILEIJIAJU、MEIGUOZAIZHONGDONGDIQUDEZHANLVESHOUSUO,CONGDUOFANGMIANDUIXIANYOUDENENGYUANGONGYINGGEJUCHANSHENGYINGXIANG,YEJIZHONGGUONENGYUANANQUANDAILAILEXINDETIAOZHAN。

  ZHONGGUODENENGYUANANQUANWENTIBUJINTIXIANZAIZONGLIANGSHANG,GENGTIXIANZAIJIEGOUSHANG。NENGYUANANQUANMAODUNJIZHONGTIXIANZAISHIYOUANQUANWENTIHUOYOUQIANQUANWENTISHANG,YEJIUSHIGUONEIYOUQIZIYUANBUNENGYOUXIAODIZHICHENGJINGJIDECHIXUFAZHAN。GENJUZHONGGUOSHIYOUJITUANJINGJIJISHUYANJIUYUANFABUDE《2018NIANGUONEIWAIYOUQIXINGYEFAZHANBAOGAO》,2018NIANZHONGGUOSHIYOUJINKOULIANGWEI4.4YIDUN,TONGBIZENGZHANG11%,SHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUSHENGZHI69.8%;TIANRANQIJINKOULIANG1254YILIFANGMI,TONGBIZENGZHANG31.7%,DUIWAIYICUNDUSHENGZHI45.3%。ZHONGGUOCONG1993NIANQI,CONGYIGESHIYOUJINGCHUKOUGUOBIANCHENGLEJINGJINKOUGUOHOU,SHIYOUDUIWAIYICUNDUCHIXUSHANGSHENG。YIDANGUOJISHIYOUGONGYINGCHUXIANDONGDANG,JIANGDUIZHONGGUOSHEHUIANDINGHEJINGJIFAZHANCHANSHENGYANZHONGDEYINGXIANG。

  ZHONGGUONENGYUANANQUANZHUYAOTIXIANZAISANGEFANGMIAN:

  首先是中国能源需求持续增长,能源安全结构性矛盾突出。从中国能源需求来看,仍然处于持续增长态势。根据国家统计局统计数据,2018年全国能源消费总量46.4亿吨标准煤,同比增长3.3%。另一方面,中国能源生产总体上虽然有所上升,但是,消费结构上存在较大安全问题。2018年中国能源消费比重中煤炭占59.0%,不利于低碳清洁发展。石油和天然气占比分别为18.9%和7.8%,虽然比重较小,但是对外依存度持续走高。中国在继2017年超过美国成为最大石油进口国后,2018年又超过日本成为最大天然气进口国。

  二是进口通道集中度高,风险评估与安全保障力度不足。中国油气进口来源虽然多元化,但仍集中在中东等少数地缘政治不稳定区域。目前中国石油进口主要来源于俄罗斯、安哥拉、沙特、伊拉克、阿曼和伊朗等国家。从来源国地理分布来看,主要集中在北非、中东和亚太地区。从进口量来看,中国进口主要来源集中在中东地区。中国油气进口通道较为集中,大部分海上运输航线都需经过马六甲海峡。

  ZHUYAOYOUSITIAOHANGXIAN: DIYITIAOWEIZHONGDONGHANGXIAN。YOUZHONGDONGJINGGUOHUOERMUZIHAIXIAHEMALIUJIAHAIXIA,CHENGDANLEJINYIBANDEZHONGGUOSHIYOUJINKOUYUNSHULIANG。DIERTIAOWEIFEIZHOUHANGXIAN,CONGFEIZHOUJINGMALIUJIAHAIXIAZHIZHONGGUOYANHAIGANGKOU。DISANTIAOWEILADINGMEIZHOUHANGXIANHEDISITIAODONGNANYAHANGXIAN,DOUJINGMALIUJIAHAIXIADAOZHONGGUOYANHAIGANGKOU。ZHEIYANG,ZHONGGUOSHIYOUYOU70%~80%JINKOULIANGXUYAOJINGGUOHUOERMUZIHAIXIAHEMALIUJIAHAIXIA,YIDANFASHENGZHANSHIHUOBEIJINGJIFENGSUO,CHULEHAIXIARONGYISHOUDAOKONGZHI,HAISHANGYUNSHUFENGXIANYEJIAODA。YINCI,JIZHONGDESHIYOUYUNSHUTONGDAOSHIDANGQIANZHONGGUONENGYUANANQUANDEZHONGDATIAOZHAN。

  三是替代能源发展不足,体制机制障碍突出。为缓解能源安全问题,政府重点推进油气资源的替代,支持发展替代能源。煤制油、煤制气等煤化工产业能有效利用煤炭资源对油气进行替代,而电动汽车被认为是对石油需求进行替代的低碳环保的技术手段,轨道交通、清洁能源等发展也能实现中国石油消费量的下降,从而降低油气的对外依存度。以上能源替代能够在一定程度上降低中国能源安全风险。

  DANSHI,MUQIANZHONGGUOTIDAINENGYUANFAZHANBUZU,TIZHIJIZHICUNZAIFAZHANZHANGAI,QIZHONGMEIZHIYOU、MEIZHIQIDENGMEIHUAGONGCHANYEYIDALIANGHAOMEIWEISHENGCHANJICHU,ZHEIYIGUOCHENGHUIDAILAIHUANJINGWURAN,TONGSHIYEXUYAOSHUIZIYUANBAOZHANG。ZHONGGUOMEIKUANGZIYUANHESHUIZIYUANNIXIANGFENBU,MEIHUAGONGXIANGMUDUOkgCAIPIAOZHUCEZAIXINJIANG、NEIMENGGU、SHANXIDENGQUESHUITUCHUDEDIQU,YEJISHUIZIYUANDAILAIWURANYINHUAN。DIANDONGQICHEJINNIANLAIZAIZHONGGUOQUDELEHENDADEFAZHAN,DANRENGMIANLINCHENGBENPIANGAO、JICHUSHESHIkgCAIPIAOZHUCEBUPIPEI、XINGYEBUMENQUEFAXIEDIAODENGWENTI。FAZHANGUIDAOJIAOTONGSHISHIYOUTIDAIDEZHONGYAOFANGMIAN,DANTOUZIDA,SHIGONGNANDUYEJIAODA。QINGJIENENGYUANFAZHANKEYITONGSHIBAOZHANGNENGYUANANQUAN、YINGDUIQIHOUBIANHUAHEJIANSHAOHUANJINGWURAN,DANQIMUQIANYOUYULIANGXIAO,HENNANYOUJIAODADEYINGXIANG,QIEQIFAZHANGUOCHENGZHONGHAICUNZAIZHEJIAODADEZHANGAI,YISHICUNZAISHENGJIANBILEI,JIQUEFAKUASHENGKUAQUXIAONAZHENGCEHEJIZHI;ERSHIDIANYUANYUDIANWANGZHIJIANFAZHANBUXIEDIAO。

  MUQIANHUASHINENGYUANZHANNENGYUANZONGXIAOFEIDE85%YISHANG,RUHEBAOZHANGGUOJIANENGYUANANQUANTONGSHIJIANGUDITANFAZHANSHIYIGELIANGNANDEXUANZE。YIGEYOUXIAODENENGYUANXITONGYINGGAIWEISUOYOURENTIGONGKECHIXU、ANQUAN、CHENGBENKEJIESHOUHEKEHUODEDENENGYUAN。ZHENGFUSHIYONGNENGYUANJIAGEHENENGYUANBUTIELAIPINGHENGZHEIXIEFAZHANMUBIAO。SUIRANBUTONGJINGJIFAZHANJIEDUANJUYOUBUTONGDEFAZHANTEZHENGHENENGYUANFAZHANMUBIAO,DANSHI,NENGYUANZHENGCEMUBIAOXUYAOPINGHENG,ZHEIYIWEIZHEZHONGZHANGQIZHONGGUONENGYUANFAZHANLUJINGHAIJIANGHUISHILIANGTIAOTUIZOULU: MEITANDEQINGJIEFAZHANHEZHICHIXINNENGYUANKUAISUZENGZHANG。

  ZHEISHIYINWEIXIANJIEDUANZHONGGUODITANQINGJIEZHUANXINGCELVEXUYAOJIANGUNENGYUANCHENGBENHENENGYUANANQUAN,FOUZENANYIZAISHIJIANZHONGDUIXIAN。QINGJIEMEITANLIYONGSHOUDAOGAOCHENGBENHETANPAIFANGDEYUESHU,YINCIXUYAOCONGJISHUHEZHENGTINENGYUANXITONGANQUANXIAOLVCHUFALAIJUEDINGZHENGFUDEZHENGCEDAOXIANG。YIBANLAISHUO,MEITANQINGJIELIYONGBAOKUOZHENGGECHANYELIANDEQINGJIEHUAHEXIAOLVTISHENG,ERMEIZHIQIHEMEIZHIYOUDEJIBENLIZUDIANSHIHUANJINGWURANZHUANYI、JIANGDIWURANCHENGBENHEBAOZHANGNENGYUANANQUAN,ZHENGFUXUYAOCONGZHEIXIEJIAODUJINXINGXINGYEGUIHUA。

  CIWAI,RUGUOJINHOUFENGDIANHEGUANGFUZHANDIANLIZONGXIAOFEIDEBILIDAFUDUTISHENG,MEITANYUQITAQINGJIENENGYUANZAIGENGDAFANWEINEIDEYOUXIAOHUBUYEKENENGSHIMEITANQINGJIEFAZHANXUYAOKAOLVDEYIGEFANGMIAN。YOUYUZHONGGUODAXINGHUODIANJIZUXIANJINHESHULIANGPANGDA,QIEMUQIANYUNXINGNIANFENBUZHANG,SHIDEHUODIANZAIXIANGDANGZHANGSHIJIANNEIJIANGQIANGLISUODING,TANBUHUODELIYONGYEXUYAODEDAOZHENGCEDEZHICHIHECHIXUTUIJIN。ZUIHOU,ZHONGGUOFAZHANDIANDONGQICHEXINGYEJIXUJIANLIZHENGFUBUMENXIEDIAOJIZHI,CHUANGXINJILIJIZHI,BUTIEJIZHI,JIAKUAITONGCHOUCHONGDIANJICHUSHESHIkgCAIPIAOZHUCE。

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