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中国能源转型幅度领跑全球 可再生能源供电如何替代?
发表日期: 2018-10-18 浏览次数: 字体:
 

  [ DAO2050NIAN,OUZHOUFADIANNENGYUANLAIYUANZHONG92%DOUJIANGWEIQINGJIENENGYUAN,HUASHINENGYUANJIHUBUJIANZONGYING。 ]

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  JINRI,ZAIYICHANGZHUTIWEI“TIDAINENGYUAN: QUDONGWEILAIDEQIANNENG”DUIHUAHUODONGSHANG,AERBOTADAXUEXIAOZHANGDUWENBIN(David H. Turpin)ZAIHUIHOUJIESHOUDIYICAIJINGJIZHEZHUANFANGSHIBIAODALEXIANGSIGUANQIE: “kgCAIPIAOZHUCERENWEIQUANQIUSUOYOUGUOJIADOUMIANLINZHETONGYIZHONGTIAOZHAN,JIRUHEZAIMANZUGONGZHONGNENGYUANXUQIUDETONGSHIZUODAOKECHIXUFAZHAN。”

  GUOJINENGYUANSHUYUCE,DAO2035NIANQIANZHONGGUORENJUNNENGYUANXIAOHAOLIANGJIANGCHAOGUOOUMENG,DAO2040NIANQIANZHONGGUOJIATINGDEPINGJUNYONGDIANLIANGJIANGDADAOMUQIANDELIANGBEI。KEZAISHENGNENGYUANNENGFOUMANZUJUDADEQUANTIANHOUGONGDIANXUQIU?

  清洁能源是大势所趋

  GENJUYANJIUGONGSIPENGBOXINNENGYUANCAIJINGDEBAOGAO,JINGUANZHUANXINGSULVBUTONG,DANQUANQIUGEDIQUDOUZAIXIANGQINGJIENENGYUANDEFANGXIANGFAZHAN。CONG2010NIANYILAI,QUANQIUKEZAISHENGNENGYUANDERONGLIANGFANLELIANGFANDADAO1650JIWA,BIMEIGUODESUOYOUFADIANCHANGJIAQILAIHAIDUO。DAO2050NIAN,OUZHOUFADIANNENGYUANLAIYUANZHONG92%DOUJIANGWEIQINGJIENENGYUAN,HUASHINENGYUANJIHUBUJIANZONGYING,ERYINDUYUZHONGGUOLIANGDAJINZHUANGUOJIADEZHEIYIZHANBIJIANGFENBIEWEI63%HE62%,MEIGUOZEZHIYOU43%。

  BUGUO,FAZHANZHONGGUOJIAWANGWANGRENGXUYAOTANMIJIXINGTOUZIHUOXIANGMUYIJIANSHAOPINKUN。ZHEIYIKEGUANFAZHANGUILVYIWEIZHE,HAICHUZAIGONGYEHUAJINCHENGZHONGDEGUOJIATANPAIFANGHAIWEIDAODING,YEBINGBUHUIZIRANERRANDIXIAJIANG。ZAISHIJIEDEFAZHANZHONGDIQU,MEITANRENGRANZHANNENGYUANXIAOFEIZHUDAODIWEI,WEILAI25NIANYUJIYINDUNIXIYARANMEIFADIANLIANGJIANGZENGJIAJINYIBEI。

  HAOZAIQUANQIUDUIKEZAISHENGNENGYUANDECHIXUTOUZIYOULIYUJIASUNIUZHUANZHEIYIJUMIAN。GENJUPENGBOXINNENGYUANCAIJING、LIANHEGUOHUANJINGSHUHEFALANKEFUCAIJINGGUANLIDAXUEDEBAOGAO,JIN2018NIANDEZHEIYITOUZIJIUDADAOLEJIN2730YIMEIYUAN,SHIRANMEIHETIANRANQIFADIANYUJIKAIZHIDESANBEI。ZAIDALITUIJINXIA,ZHONGGUOYUYINDUDEMEIDIANFADIANLIANGJIANGFENBIEZAI2027NIANHE2028NIANDADAODINGFENG,DAO2050NIAN,TAIYANGNENG、FENGNENGHESHUILIFADIANZAIZHEILIANGGUODESHICHANGFENEJIANGCHAOGUO60%。

  QINGHUADAXUEDITANNENGYUANSHIYANSHIZHUREN、JIAOSHOULIZHENGJIUCIHUATIDUIDIYICAIJINGJIZHEBIAOSHI: “FAZHANZHONGGUOJIARENGRANCHUZAIJIAODIDESHENGHUOBIAOZHUNXIA,YINCIFAZHANYINGSHIQIYOUXIANDIAN。LAOSHISHUO,NIBUNENGQIDAITAMENCONGYIKAISHIJIUWANQUANSHIYONGKEZAISHENGNENGYUAN,YINWEIZHEIBUKENENGZOUXIAO。TAMENKEYICONGYIXIEKECHENGDANDEJINGJIXUANZEKAISHI,ERZHEIZAICHUSHIJIEDUANZHINENGSHITANMIJIDE。BUGUO,kgCAIPIAOZHUCEKEYIZHANWANGDEWEILAITUJINGSHI,DANGTAMENCHONGFENFAZHANZHIHOU,DABUFENNENGYUANTIXIDOUSHILVSEDITANDE,ZHEISHIkgCAIPIAOZHUCEKEYIZHUIQIUDEFANGXIANG。”

  DUWENBINBUCHONGJIESHAOCHENG: “(GUOJINENGYUANSHU)ZHI2040NIANDEYUCEBIAOMING,NENGYUANQIANGDU(MEIDANWEIGDPSUOXIAOHAONENGYUANLIANG)ZAIZHONGGUODEJIANGDISUDUWEIQUANQIUZUIKUAI。JIEXIALAIJINIANNEI,ZHONGGUODETAIYANGNENGGUANGFUXIANGMUCHENGBENJIANGHENKUAIDIYUXIANYOUHEXINDERANQIFADIANZHAN。2030NIANQIAN,ZHONGGUODETAIYANGNENGJIANGBIXINDERANMEIFADIANZHANGENGBIANYI。”

  全天候供电的关键是更灵活的电网系统

  NEIME,SHENMEYANGDENENGYUANXIAOFEIJIEGOUCAISHILIXIANGDE,NAZHONGKEZAISHENGNENGYUANYINGYOUXIANBEIXUANZE?

  YIFENGNENGHETAIYANGNENGWEILI,JINGGUOSHUSHINIANDEPEIE、JIANSHUIHESHANGWANGDIANJIABUTIEDENGGULI,ZHEILIANGZHONGNENGYUANYIZAIQUANQIUGUANGFANBUSHUBINGZHUJIANTIGAOXIAOLV。PENGBOSHUJUXIANSHI,ZI2010NIANYILAI,FENGDIANCHENGBENJIANSHAOYUE50%,TAIYANGNENGCHENGBENZEDAFUSUOJIANLE85%,ZHEISHITAMENBISHIJIEJIN70%DEXINJIANRANMEIJITIANRANQIFADIANCHANGDOUSHIHUI。

  BUGUO,ZHUANJIAMENPUBIANRENWEI,YIJIAOWEIDANYIDEJIEJUEFANGANHUIDATIDAINENGYUANQUANTIANHOUGONGDIANDEFUZAWENTISHIBUKEQUDE。JUPENGBOXINNENGYUANJINRONGDIAOCHA,DAO2025NIAN,KEZAISHENGNENGYUANFADIANZHANDESHULIANGJIANGDADACHAOGUOFEIKEZAISHENGNENGYUANFADIANZHANDESHULIANG,DANQIANZHEXIANGBIHOUZHEDEFADIANLIANGQUERENGBUKETONGRIERYU。

  DUWENBINGAOSUDIYICAIJINGJIZHE: “ZHEIQIZHONGSHEJIFEICHANGDUODEKAOLVYINSU,SHISHISHANG,BUTONGZHONGLEIDENENGYUANYINGGAIBEILIANXIQILAI。BIRUSHUO,kgCAIPIAOZHUCEWANGWANGTANQITAIYANGNENG,DANYOUSHIHOUTIANHUIHEI,kgCAIPIAOZHUCEHAIHUITIQIFENGNENG,DANYOUSHIHOUFENGBINGBUCHUI(ZHEIYIWEIZHEGONGDIANGONGNENGJIUBINGBUWENDING),ZHEIYANGDELIZIHAIYOUHENDUO。SUOYIkgCAIPIAOZHUCERENWEI,XIAYIDAIDENENGYUANZHONGDIANSHISHEJIGEZHONGNENGYUANBINGNENGMANZUGONGYINGXUQIUDEFUZADIANWANGXITONG。”

  AERBOTADAXUEGONGCHENGXUEYUANDIANQIYUJISUANJIGONGCHENGJIAOSHOULIYUNWEITICHU,MEIYOUDUISUOYOURENDOUSHIYONGDENENGYUAN。TABIAOSHI: “DAJIADOUXIWANGJINKUAISHIXIANNENGYUANZHUANXING,DANZHEISHIJIQUJUEYUKEZAISHENGNENGYUANGONGDIANDESHENTOULV(SHIJIGONGLVYUZONGDEFUHEGONGLVDEBI)XIANZAIDAODIYOUDUODA。”PIRUSHUO,JINGUANFENGNENGHUOTAIYANGNENGZHEIYANGYIJINGCUNZAISHANGQIANNIANDENENGYUANKEYIBIANWEIBENDIHUAFANGAN,DANMUQIANZHEILIANGZHONGNENGYUANFADIANJINZHANQUANQIUGONGDIANBILIDE7%。

  LIYUNWEIBIAOSHI: “RUGUOXUYAOJINYIBUFAZHAN,kgCAIPIAOZHUCERENGRANXUYAOGENGDUOJISHUCHUANGXINYUJICHUSHESHIkgCAIPIAOZHUCE。BIRU,XIANZAIXUDUOKEZAISHENGNENGYUANFADIANCHANSHENGDESHIZHILIUDIANHUOGENGDIPINLVHEZIDEDIAN,ZHEIYUXIANCUNDEDIANWANGGUIGEBINGBUXIANGRONG,WEILAIkgCAIPIAOZHUCEYAOZUOGENGDUOZHILIUDIANHEkgCAIPIAOZHUCEDIANDEZHUANHUAN,CAINENGKUODAKEZAISHENGNENGYUANDEFADIANGUIMO。CIWAI,kgCAIPIAOZHUCEYEXUYAOGENGZHINENGDEDIANWANG,DUITIDAINENGYUANCHANSHENGDEDIANNENGJINXINGDIAOKONG。”

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  DUWENBINBUCHONGCHENG: “MEIYIZHONGNENGYUANDOUYOUZIJIDEQUEDIAN,SUOYOUZHEIXIENENGYUANDOUYOUHENDADAIJIA。kgCAIPIAOZHUCEDETIAOZHANSHIKANSHEHUIRUHEJIANHUANYIJIZUIXIAOHUAZHEIXIECHENGBEN,ERZHEIYESHIkgCAIPIAOZHUCEZHENGZAIZUODE。”

  越来越低成本的储能电池投资将更加火热

  ZAIQUANTIANHOUGONGDIANDEWENTISHANG,RUGUOKEZAISHENGNENGYUANCHANSHENGDEDIANLIANGWUFAHELICHUCUN,RUGUODIANCHIDECHENGBENTAIGAOYIZHIYUFADIANCHANGBUYUANYIYICICHUCUNJIXIAOSHIDEFADIANLIANGBEIYONG,QINGJIENENGYUANJIUHENNANTIDAIHUASHINENGYUAN。

  ZAIZHEIYANGDEBEIJINGXIA,JINNIANDENUOBEIERHUAXUEJIANGSHOUYULEGUDINAFU(John B. Goodenough)、WEITINGHAN(Stanley Whittingham)YIJIJIYEZHANG(Akira Yoshino)SANWEIKEXUEJIA,JIAJIANGTAMENZAILILIZIDIANCHIFANGMIANDEYANJIUGONGXIAN。ZHEIZHONGDIANCHIKEYICHUCUNTAIYANGNENGHEFENGNENG,RANGWUHUASHIRANLIAODESHIJIECHENGWEIKENENG。

  DUWENBINGAOSUDIYICAIJINGJIZHE: “ZHEISHINENGYUANZHUANXINGTAOLUNZHONGHENZHONGYAODEYIDIAN,YINWEIkgCAIPIAOZHUCEXIANZAIMIANLINDEYIDATIAOZHANJIUSHIRUHECHUCUNNENGYUAN,ERDIANCHICHUCUNJISHUDEFAZHANHUISHIXINDEZHONGYAOMAIJIN。”

  GENJUPENGBOXINNENGYUANCAIJINGBAOGAO,ZAIGUOQUBUDAOSHINIANDESHIJIANZHONG,DIANCHIJIAGEYIJINGXIAJIANGLE84%,WEICHUNENGXUQIUDEJISUZENGZHANGTIGONGJIEJUEFANGAN。JUGAIJIGOUYUCE,QUANQIUCHUNENGZHUANGZHICONG2018NIANDAO2040NIANJIANGZENGZHANG122BEI,ZHEIQIJIANDEGUIMOKUAYUEJIANGXUYAODALIANGTOUZICAINENGDEYISHIXIAN。

  HAOZAIYUELAIYUEDIDEDIANCHICHENGBENJIANGJILITOUZIZHEDUIGONGYONGGUIMODIANCHIDETOURU。PENGBOYUCE,DAO2030NIANMEIQIANWASHILILIZIDIANCHIDECHENGBENJIANGJINYIBUJIANGDIYIBAN。ZHEIYANGYILAI,DAO2050NIAN,GONGYONGGUIMODIANCHIJIESHOUDETOUZIYUJIJIANGDA5210YIMEIYUAN,ERXIAOGUIMODIANCHIXIANGBIZHIXIAZEZHIYOU3220YIMEIYUAN。CIWAI,YIJIWAZUODANWEIHENGLIANG,JINSIFENZHISANDEQUANQIUCHUNENGZHUANGZHISHICHANGZHENGYOU10GEGUOJIAZHANJU。DAO2040NIAN,ZHONGGUOHEMEIGUOJIANGYAOYAOLINGXIAN,ERMUQIANDEZHUYAOSHICHANGHANGUOJIANGSHIQUQIDIWEI。QIYUZHONGYAOSHICHANGHAIBAOKUOYINDU、DEGUO、LADINGMEIZHOU、DONGNANYA、FAGUO、AODALIYAHEYINGGUODENG。

  LIYUNWEIYEDUIDIYICAIJINGJIZHEBUCHONGDAO: “YOUXUDUOZHONGNENGYUANKEYIYONGLIDIANCHIDEJISHUQIBU,BIRUJIACHUNRANLIAODIANCHI,ZHEISHIYIZHONGDIANLICHUNENGDEJIEJUEFANGSHI。DANCHUCIZHIWAI,NIBIXUYONGYIZHONGCONGMINGDEFANGSHIKONGZHIFUZAILIANG,RANGFUZAILIANGSHIKEDIAOJIEDE。ZONGERYANZHI,ZHEILIMEIYOUDANYIDEJIEJUEFANGSHI,BIXUZONGHEQILAISHIYONG。”

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